Africa’s Aviation Growth Hinges on Improving Bankability, Says ACC Aviation
Africa is fast emerging as one of the world’s most promising aviation markets, with passenger demand rising steadily and air traffic expected to double over the next two decades. Despite these strong growth prospects, industry experts believe the continent’s biggest hurdle is no longer demand but its ability to attract investment.
Speaking at a recent aviation conference in Gaborone, Botswana, Tristan Brouard, Associate Director at ACC Aviation, said Africa’s aviation sector faces a unique paradox of robust growth potential coupled with mounting financial pressures. “Africa does not have a demand problem. It has a bankability problem,” Brouard said. “Airlines must demonstrate that their growth strategies are financially sustainable, operationally credible, and capable of meeting the expectations of lenders, investors and lessors.”
The remarks come as airlines worldwide continue to grapple with aircraft supply shortages. Lengthy order backlogs and delivery delays have increased reliance on leased aircraft, while higher global interest rates have driven up financing costs. Lessors have largely transferred these additional costs to airlines, placing further pressure on operating margins—particularly for African carriers, which already contend with higher operating expenses and perceived regional investment risks.
Despite these challenges, Africa continues to outperform many global markets. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Africa was the only region to record positive passenger traffic growth in April 2026, registering a 2.8% increase, while global traffic declined by 3.4% due to disruptions in the Middle East.
The long-term outlook remains highly encouraging. Boeing forecasts annual passenger traffic growth of 6.4% through 2043, making Africa the fastest-growing aviation market worldwide. The continent’s commercial aircraft fleet is also expected to more than double during this period. Yet, although Africa is home to nearly 20% of the global population, it accounts for only about 2% of worldwide passenger traffic, highlighting significant untapped potential.
However, profitability remains a major concern. African airlines face some of the industry’s highest operating costs, with jet fuel prices often 20–30% higher than in other regions because of supply chain inefficiencies, import dependence, and limited refining capacity. Taxes and airport-related charges can account for 30–35% of ticket prices, roughly twice the proportion seen in many European markets.
As a result, IATA projects African airlines will earn an average net profit of only US$1.30 per passenger in 2026, compared with the global average of US$7.90.
Brouard believes the issue is not a lack of available capital but the industry’s ability to attract it. “Global capital exists. The challenge is not a shortage of funding. The challenge is becoming investable,” he said.
The industry is increasingly shifting its focus from financing shortages to improving investment readiness. In 2026, the African Development Bank launched the Integrated Aviation Transformation Program (IATP) to improve access to aviation finance, strengthen regional connectivity, and encourage greater private-sector investment.
Meanwhile, wider implementation of the Cape Town Convention is expected to enhance investor confidence by providing stronger legal protection for aircraft financiers and lessors. Industry bodies such as AFRAA are also working to strengthen collaboration between airlines, lessors, manufacturers, commercial lenders, and development finance institutions to improve financing opportunities for African carriers.
A persistent obstacle remains the “African risk premium,” with many lessors charging higher financing and leasing costs due to concerns over asset recovery, regulatory consistency, foreign exchange availability, and payment repatriation.
According to Brouard, credibility has become one of the industry’s most valuable assets. “Capital follows credibility. Airlines that demonstrate strong governance, transparent ownership structures and disciplined financial management are better positioned to access financing on competitive terms,” he said.
He also highlighted equity partnerships, alternative financing models, and strategic investors as increasingly important avenues for airline expansion. With aircraft availability remaining tight and investors becoming more selective, airlines that strengthen their financial credibility and prepare well in advance will be best positioned to secure funding, expand their fleets, and capitalize on Africa’s growing aviation opportunity.
About the Author
